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 novembre 2019 


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Ritorno al nucleare. Conviene? Risolve? Il caso tedesco Roma, 11 luglio 2008 Ladies and Gentlemen, The need to replace mineral oil, natural gas, coal with renewable resources is becoming ever more obvious, although many oil corporations steadfastly maintain that no supply shortages will occur in the coming decades. But nuclear power is no solution. Last month oil price conference and the announcement of Saudi Arabia to rise the oil production gave no solution. Neither speculation nor crisis in the oil production regions are the main price driver. They still disregard the fact, that the global oil production has peaked and cannot rise anymore despite of all announcements of Saudi Arabia, Iraqi, Kuwait and others. The rising oil price is a phenomena, that no one of the conventional scientists, economist, governments forecasted. All are astonished and do not know any solution, because of the fact, that they all deed not see the problem of limited resources of fossil Energies. Only some scientists and politicians like me warned in the past years. The same will come now also in nuclear. Scientists of the energy watch group warn, that beginning in the middle of the coming decade there is not enough uranium on the world to support the existing reactors. Furthermore, the world will not have enough uranium to support additional new reactors. The forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris of 1300 new reactors in the coming years is incredible crazy. It is as unrealistic as the last IEA forecasts for oil prices. Look to the details: Current studies from Energy Watch Group conclude that global oil extraction passed its peak in 2006. (Slide 2: EWG forecasts) In the coming years, oil extraction will decline by around 3% annually, which will mean that in 2030 only around 50% of today’s level of 81 million barrels per day will be produced. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris is no longer capable of producing accurate oil forecasts. It claims in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2006 that oil extraction could increase by 30% by 2030. (Slide 3 world oil prices and IEA price forecasts). The IEA’s long-standing inability to estimate the world’s resources accurately is shown by its oil price forecasts, which have for years proven to be inaccurate. For example, as recently as its World Energy Outlook of 2004, the IEA predicted a long-term oil price of under 30 dollars per barrel for 2008. A forecast which can be considered more than farfetched. And yet almost all governments and companies continue to believe these incorrect forecasts. Crazy, today the oil price stands at over 140 Dollar. The G8 summit this week in Japan and the meeting two weeks ago in Saudi Arabia showed only, that the governments all over the world are helpless to describe the reasons for the high oil prices and so they cannot find any solution. (Slide 4: Oilprice rising) Ladies and Gentlemen, The IEA and all Governments have in recent years completely failed to accurately assess the situation for fossil-fuel resources. The time has come for you all to recognise this, and above all to recognise that fossil fuels and nuclear power will no longer be able to meet the world’s energy demand in the coming years. Those who today continue to refuse to invest heavily in renewables and energy savings will cause a serious global economic crisis, in which they too will suffer in economic terms. This economic crises began already, the first airplane companies fear to bankrupt and lorry driver or fisherman protest hardly against the high oil price. Governments are helpless to solve the problem. The nearly only solution, they announce “nuclear” is impossible to solve the energy crises. How could airplanes, lorries and fisher boats drive with nuclear power? The G8 Governments oversee the only realistic solution: Renewable Energies and energy saving. (Slide 5: Natural gas peak) Just as the global oil supply is beginning to run dry, so it is inevitable that the natural gas supply will follow soon. Natural gas is a limited resource which cannot replace oil-based energy production. (Folie 6: Coal price) Coal-based energy production, however, as the most environmentally hazardous, should be abandoned as quickly as possible. Furthermore the coal shortages are already in the world, look to the coal price, it doubled in only one year. In July the 6the China closed 58 coal power plants because of shortfalls in coal supply I would like to put it on record that nuclear energy makes up only 2.2% of global energy requirements. Statistics that put this figure at 7% are inaccurate because they include the amount of energy used in cooling towers or wasted by warming rivers. This tiny share of 2.2% of global energy requirements, however, is the cause of serious problems such as: nuclear weapons, nuclear waste, uranium mining, danger to safety, violations of human rights, radioactive contamination leukaemia of children, as a new German study shows and much more.(Slide 7: Pripjat) Look to Pripjat in Ukrainian a town with former 40 000 inhabitants. 20 later there lives no one there. That’s the truth over radioactivity. The financing problems of removing nuclear materials are increasing rapidly in Germany: By the way: the dismantling of the research centre for reprocessing in Karlsruhe was planed for 500 Million Euros now the cost are already at 4 Billion Euros with steep increasing. Nuclear energy is no cheap energy. This all and other arguments leads to the policy, that Germany will face out nuclear completely in the coming years. New scientific reports remind, that uranium is the most limited resource of all. (Slide 8 Uranium peak) A report from the Energy Watch Group ( shows that in the next few years there will already be shortages in the supply of uranium required by the 439 reactors which currently exist worldwide. Atomic energy meets only 2.2% of the world’s energy demand. Atomic energy will therefore never be able to compete with fossil fuel energy or renewable resources. (Slide 9: Germany, GB: Nuclear, REN) Look to Great Britain compared with Germany. The energy Policy of Great Britain is focused on nuclear. But instead of nuclear support the electricity production in GB fall down last years. But in Germany the support for Renewables was very successful. Germany produces more renewable electricity, than GB nuclear electricity. It is possible to make a fast total switch away from crude oil, natural gas, coal and uranium. (Slide 10: Supply of renewable energy; slide provided by the German Solar Power Research Association (FVS)) The natural supply of renewable sources of energy – solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal power, bio-energy and ocean energies – offer many thousand times’ the world’s entire annual energy requirement. Enough solar radiation, in particular, reaches the Earth to meet today world’s energy demand 15 000 times over. (Slide 11: CSP potential vs. electricity demand) If only one percent of the surface of Sahara desert was covered with solar power plants, the whole world population would be sufficiently supplied with electricity. Even in South Italy there is a huge potential for solar electricity, both solarthermal and fotovoltaic, because there are gigantic desert areas. (Slide 12: CSP Power) (Slide 13: TREC) It is necessary and possible to connect Europe with North Africa with a super grid, to use the big potential of wind and solar of Africa. I hope on Italian Government to support this idea of TREC. Ladies and Gentlemen It is possible to achieve the goal of 100% renewables worldwide within a few decades. Several studies have long since shown that entire regions could meet their own energy demand with self-produced energy from renewable energy sources. We shall come to produce our electricity, heating, cooling and transport fuels from renewable energy sources within a few decades. (Slide 14: Annual Investment in REN) Renewable energies expanded rapidly during recent years. 70 billion US Dollar have been invested worldwide last year. But there is one thing that is necessary, namely active political support, to accelerate further development. The expansion is restricted to a few nations. Thus successful and efficient laws for renewables are necessary for all countries. In the electricity sector, the German and Spanish Renewable Energy Sources Acts are among the most important and most successful laws in the world for promoting renewable energies. The growth rates achieved by Germany, Spain and other countries are very high, and there has been rapid industrialisation of renewables, especially of wind energy and photovoltaics. (Slide 15: Growth rate of renewable electricity in Germany) In 2000, the Members of the German Parliament set a target in the Renewable Energy Sources Act for 12.5% of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2010. We were told that this target was unrealistic and unachievable. And yet at the end of 2007 a 14% share has already been achieved. This shows that renewables can grow much faster than is often assumed. What is crucial is the political framework, such as feed-in tariffs. Renewable electricity is worldwide increasing as such a rate that worldwide energy demand could be met by renewables within a few decades. (Slide 16 Job engine renewable energies) Evidence for the development of renewable energies is given by the rapid increase of jobs in this industrial sector over the last few years. In 1998, only 30.000 persons were occupied in the renewable energies industry in Germany, just as many as in the nuclear industry. At the end of 2006, the number of persons occupied in the renewable energies sector had increased to 235.000. Experts expect that around 500.000 renewable energies jobs will be created until 2020. The most attractive political framework is created by feed-in tariffs, which have proved to be remarkably effective measures for the promotion of renewable energies in Germany and Spain. A look at laws in other countries reveals that the German feedin law is the most successful instrument of all. (Slide 17: Wind Power in G, GB, ) For instance, the United Kingdom has not reached Germany’s level of installed wind capacity, despite the fact that it is windier in the UK than in Germany. In addition, the cost of a kilowatthour of electricity from wind power in the UK, at 13 cents, is almost twice as high as in Germany. (Slides 18 -19: Windpower increase worldwide) A look to the realised wind power growth worldwide shows, that the IEA was unable to forecast this growth. In 2002 the IEA predicted a global wind capacity of about 100 GW. But already this year 2008, 12 years earlier the 100 GW was realised. The IEA overestimates the resources of oil, gas, coal and uranium, but underestimates the growth rates of renewable energies. The IEA is completely unable to advise the world correct over energy issues. (Slide 20: PV Growth in Germany, Japan) A comparison of the rates of growth in photovoltaics in Germany and Japan also provides convincing evidence that feed-in tariffs create more successful industrial policies than state subsidies or quotas and certificate laws. The initial successes of the photovoltaics industry in Japan have been far surpassed by Germany since the Renewable Energy Sources Act was passed. As a German parliamentarian who actively pushed for Germany’s legislation on renewables and feed-in tariffs, I can only appeal to and call on the Italian Parliamentarians and government: Please take any possible measures to achieve a similar successful feed in law in Italy. This will result in a great technological development in all sectors: wind power, solar energy, (Slide 21: Biogas) Biogas, (Slide 22: geothermal) geothermal energy (Slide 23 and 24: Marine technologies) and especially marine energy. The energetic use of oceans is still to be made accessible. Italy could become market leader for wave and sea current energy quite quickly with a good feed in law. (Slide 25: Key components of a successful feed-in law) A successful feed-in tariffs law needs to contain certain important details. I know, Italy has already a feed in law. But not all details are correct, so the law cannot become very successful. For example, the feed-in tariff must be paid for an extended period, at least 20 years. This provides the necessary security for investment. The feed-in tariff must also be high enough for investment to be profitable. A priviledged grid access is decisive, to entitle investors to connect and feed into the grid. Furthermore a cap for the investment volume is not good for growth. The introduction of the Renewable Energy Law in Germany has continued to be controversial. However, substantial counterarguments have been lacking. All counterarguments are not sound. The initially high costs for renewables will fall in the coming years, thereby allowing them to be carried by the production economy. Similarly, the law does not concern subsidies, because tax funds are not at all involved. The entire financing of the Renewable Energy Law is through private capital, without public funds. Tax money is not envolved. The state only specifies the framework for how investments in renewables are able to become economically profitable. The market alone covers the remainder. Thus no subsidies are paid for through the EEG. Also the introduction costs for renewables are minimal. The additional costs for a typical household in Germany would be less than 2 Euros per month. (Slide 26: Avoided cost) All in all the national economy in Germany has been relieved by renewable energies. While renewables accounted for 3,5 billion EURO additional costs per year, over 15 billion EURO could be saved due to reduced import of fossiles, avoided external evironmental damage and lessened costs for emission certificates. Although the advantages of the feed-in tariff system for renewables are well-known, there are still resistances worldwide. The conventional fossil and atomic energy companies practise enormous background lobbying for their own interests and mostly against renewables. The renewable energy act was introduced by greens and social democrats in Bundestag in 2000, against the votes of the conservativs. It’s a decisive step that now even the conservatives in the German Parliament accept the feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable energies and consider them as indispensable. Some years ago, this couldn’t be expected: During the national election campaign in 2005, the conservatives demanded the abolishment of the feed-in tariffs. But the extremely successful development of electricity production from renewable energies has come to be one of the driving forces behind the recent economic boom in Germany. This fact has convinced even the conservatives. Last month they agreed to the amendment of the renewable energy act. But I am concerned about the latest proposal within the European Commission. Unfortunately, the European Commission hasn’t proposed to make obligatory feed-in tariffs for renewable energies all over Europe. This would have been the best step toward the development of renewable energies in the electricity sector. By means of such a measure, the aim of a 20 per cent share of renewable energies would certainly have been exceeded rapidly. To achieve this aim would be urgently necessary in order to protect our climate and ensure our energy supply. But neither the aims, nor the measures for the promotion of renewable energies as proposed by the European Commission are sufficient. Instead of introducing feed-in tariffs which have proved to be successful in several countries, the Commission intends to commit the member states to issue electronic Certificates of Provenance for electricity and heat from renewable energies. A new administrative apparatus with issuing authorities and a register of certificates will have to be established. This will make necessary bureaucratic measures which could easily be avoided. Even in countries like Germany and Spain which have introduced effective feed-in tariffs, the respective acts are put into question, notwithstanding the contrary statements of the European Commission. The certificate trade might weaken the effects of the Renewable Energy Sources Act. It is therefore anymore essential to defend Germany’s and Spains Renewable Energy Sources Act and feed-in tariffs against the Commission’s proposal to undermine them. The rapport in the EU Parliament for the renewable directive, coming from the reporteur Claude Turmes, Member of the green group gives hope. He proposed to cancel the unsuccessful tradable certificates. We all politicians should support him, that he will become successful. Furthermore I personally made a proposal in an amendment for the Turmes Report, with a feed in tariff European wide. If anyone would like to support this proposal I would be delighted to come in contact. (Slide 27: Solar Car (Twike) in front of Solar Park) On this slide, you can see my solar car. The amount of electricity it consumes is rather small. It can be produced by PV solar parks like the one in the background, which is among the world’s largest. I only need 10 square meters of PV on the roof of my home to enable my car to run 10.000 kilometres per year. What is necessary is to convert automobiles to emission-free drive systems powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. The most important strategy to introduce REN into transport sector, is to convert the car producers from combustion machines to electricity cars, busses, cycles and others. In the big cities of China you cannot see anymore any cycle with combustion engine they all run only with electricity. The transfer of knowledge as well as education are essential factors to meet the challenge of transforming our energy system. To facilitate the worldwide transfer of knowledge, it is imperative that an International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) be founded. This proposal, spearheaded by EUROSOLAR, has waited for a long time for political implementation, despite the many resolutions passed by legislatures and governments at the national and international level. I would appreciate, that Italy and other countries would join the foundation process of IRENA this year on invitation of the German government. Ladies and Gentlemen, An active climate protection policy, which at the same time ensures energy supply in the long term, makes a complete conversion to renewable energies indispensable. But we will earn also new jobs and a third industrial revolution. Let’s work together to provide even more support for all renewables and energy savings in Germany, Italy, EU, USA China and other countries. Thank you very much for your attention.

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