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PRESS REVIEW ON EU-TURKEY RELATIONS

COLD ON TURKEY The International Herald Tribune - September 11, 2009 by Martti Ahtisaari Stockholm - Turkey’s aspiration to join the European Union motivated it to make a series of remarkable transformations between 2000 and 2005. Ankara amended a third of the country’s authoritarian Constitution. Its legislators enacted human rights laws in line with international standards. It abolished the death penalty. It provided greater legal protections for women. It introduced new safeguards against torture and reformed the penal system. It scrapped draconian restrictions on freedom of expression, association and the media. The Turkish armed forces have stepped further back from the dominant role they had played in the country’s political life since the time of its founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Turkish-Kurdish tensions have eased. Turks have begun to debate the Armenian question openly. Turkey has also made significant positive input as a regional power, contributing troops for international peacekeeping missions and supporting talks to settle the Cyprus conflict in 2004. Let us also not forget the significant cooling of animosities between Greece and Turkey. Yet despite so promising a start, the process of Turkey’s accession to the E.U. has lost significant momentum since 2005. Negative statements and actions by E.U. leaders have played a key role in discouraging Turkey. These have undermined Ankara’s will to reform and have fueled resentment. Popular support in Turkey for E.U. membership continues to wane. Frustrated leaders in Turkey lament that the E.U. would reject Turkey’s accession even if Ankara implements all the prerequisite reforms and meets all other preconditions. Europe’s wavering on Turkey’s E.U. accession is jeopardizing the E.U.’s credibility and threatening to tarnish its good image. How can European leaders be trusted if they continue to go back on their word, stalling, and perhaps scuttling, a process that began a decade ago with so much promise, has produced so many positive effects, and holds such potential for the future? During my three decades in mediating conflicts around the globe, I have learned that only rarely, perhaps once in a generation, do the political planets align for dramatic solutions. (In the past few years just such an alignment appeared over Northern Ireland.) A promising alignment is now appearing over a land of key importance for both the E.U. and Turkey: Cyprus. Ongoing talks between the leaders of the island’s Greek and Turkish communities offer the best and probably the last chance to avoid an indefinite partition of the island. A settlement on Cyprus — something that both Turkey and the E.U. can contribute to achieving — would breathe new life into the accession negotiations between Turkey and the E.U. and hasten the day when both sides can gain full advantage from each other. Strengthening the relationship between Turkey and the E.U. through accession negotiations offers a clear opportunity to serve the E.U.’s interests in energy security and to bolster stability both in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. If Turkey were to meet the remaining requirements for membership, the country would enjoy a more open society. It would be more comfortable in its own diversity. It would demonstrate that Islam and democracy are fully compatible. Such a Turkey would be a beacon to East and West alike. Its integration would help galvanize the E.U. to embrace its own diversity and enhance its position in the world as a trusted partner. On a cold Helsinki day in December 1999, E.U. leaders declared Turkey to be “a candidate state destined to join the Union on the basis of the same criteria as applied to the other candidate states.” Today, almost 10 years later, Turkey’s destiny seems far less certain. What is at stake is not just Turkey’s future, but also the credibility of the European Union as an honest broker. Martti Ahtisaari, a former president of Finland and Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 2008, is chairman of the Independent Commission on Turkey. TOURING EUROPE TO MAKE TURKEY'S CASE Turkish Daily News - September 11, 2009 They have visited four capitals in four days, holding meetings during the day and traveling at night and in this fast-moving world this might appear to be business as unusual. But considering that the group’s average age is 70, the story comes out in a different light. While Turkey is busying itself struggling to solve the Kurdish issue, cooling the latest animosity between Syria and Iraq, or simply coping with the floods that have devastated Istanbul, a group of prominent Europeans is touring continental capitals to make Turkey's case. The Independent Commission on Turkey was established five years ago to promote a rational debate on Turkey’s accession to the European Union. Comprised of former politicians, the commission released its first report on Turkish-EU relations in September 2004. Members of the commission then toured European capitals to lobby for the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey. The bloc decided to start membership talks with Turkey in December 2004, yet the talks – now in their fifth year – have come nearly to a standstill. Commission members are back on the road again to caution a largely European audience that there is an urgent need to break the vicious cycle of recent Turkish-EU relations. Growing apprehension: The commission believes that negative reactions from European political leaders and the growing apprehension of the European public about further enlargement have given Turkey the impression that it is not welcome, even if it were to meet all the membership conditions. Support in Turkey for the EU has faded and the reform process has stalled. Lack of Turkish reforms triggered more European opposition to Turkey's accession. According to the commission, the sense of being excluded has further demoralized Turkish reformers, thus perpetuating the vicious cycle. Headed by Nobel Peace Prize-winner Martti Ahtisaari, the commission has released its second report and focused mainly on ways to break the cycle. The report was released on Monday in Brussels, where the commission met with Olie Rehn, the European Union’s top enlargement official. The commission left Brussels for the first leg of their European tour, which included Sweden, which held the EU presidency, followed by France and Austria. Emma Bonnino, the vice president of the Italian Senate, accompanied Ahtisaari, the only person in the eight-member commission to currently hold a job. “We are atypical retirees,” said Ahtisaari of the rest of the group that also includes former French prime minister Michel Rocard and Albert Rohan, former secretary-general of Austrian foreign affairs. Throughout the tour, commission members have carried the message that European leaders have a moral obligation to keep the promise given to Turkey that it will join the 27-nation bloc upon completing its reform obligations. The commission did not need to struggle much to convey this message to Sweden, since there is a cross-party consensus to support Turkey's accession. This was not the case in France and Austria, where many are advocating an alternative to membership. The discussion with French opinion makers evolved into an ethical debate about honoring commitments. The world changes, said a French bureaucrat, claming that the decisions made 50 years ago in Yalta are not being implemented, either, and questioning the commission's view that promises must be kept. Trust problems: “We have to honor our undertakings with any country. Otherwise, I would not be able to trust in any European institution,” said Ahtisaari, adding that if Europe is not consistent with its own values it will be difficult for him to take action in a country like Namibia. “People come and go, governments come and go. But what are permanent are procedures, rules and institutions,” said Emma Bonino. In the debate organized by the notorious French Institute of International Relations, or IFRI, some participants voiced support for Turkey’s bid. “Some problems can not be solved without Turkey,” said one attendee. “That might be correct, yet public opinion in Europe unfortunately remains unaware,” said the moderator, Dominique Moisi, who is one of Europe's leading geopolitical thinkers. His comment in turn triggered a debate on the negative public opinion of Turkish accession, an issue that the commission has tackled in detail in its report. “Let's not underestimate the public opinion but let's not forget that it can be manipulated,” said Ahtisaari, a view shared by Bonino, who reiterated the role of political leaders in shaping public opinion: “When Poland was about to enter the European Union, everyone in France feared an invasion of the Polish workforce. We have not seen that invasion. With Turkey entering the EU, everyone argues that all poor Turks will be flocking to Europe. Only my mother-in-law can believe such things. Those who are aware of the realities should be aware of their responsibilities. In Italy, all of a sudden every Italian has become an angel and immigrants commit all crimes. This kind of discourse, encouraged by politicians, is dangerous. It will lead to racism. Political leaders should stop putting the blame on the public,” she said, not forgetting to apologize to her mother-in-law at the end. Moisi underscored that the current French government would rather see “Europe with Turkey,” rather than “Turkey in Europe.” Another commission member, former Spanish foreign minister Marcelino Oreja Aguirre, firmly stated that Turkey is in Europe. “You might think that Turkey is not European. This can only be a personal judgment, not an institutional one,” he said, recalling that Turkey has become a member of the Council of Europe in 1949 and that in 1999 it was unanimously declared an EU candidate. The commission’s report and capital visits have received intensive coverage in the European media. It remains to be seen to what degree the commission will be able to influence European leaders and public opinion. “We know we can not create miracles,” said Bonino. “We have to be persistent. I know that from personal experience.” LA TURQUIE DÉCRITE COMME UN ATOUT STRATÉGIQUE POUR L'EUROPE Le Monde - 9 septembre 2009 par Natalie Nougayrède L''Europe, qui aspire à jouer un rôle de puissance, doit se ressaisir si elle ne veut pas gâcher les opportunités que lui offre la candidature de la Turquie. Celles-ci sont multiples : un relais d'influence auprès du monde musulman, une capacité renforcée de projection en politique étrangère vers des régions diverses comme le Moyen-Orient, le Caucase, l'Asie centrale, autant de zones où se jouent des enjeux stratégiques, notamment pour les approvisionnements en énergie. L'Europe doit se ressaisir, car à force de laisser le dossier des négociations turques s'enliser, elle est en passe de perdre un partenaire précieux. C'est en substance l'appel lancé, lundi 7 septembre, par un groupe de personnalités politiques européennes, dont le prix Nobel de la paix 2008 et ancien président finlandais Martti Ahtissaari, l'ancien premier ministre français Michel Rocard, et l'ancienne commissaire européenne Emma Bonino. (Bronislaw Geremek, l'ancien ministre polonais, mort en 2008, avait aussi participé à ce groupe de travail). L'Europe a décidé, en décembre 2004, de lancer des négociations d'adhésion avec la Turquie. Un pays dont le rang de "candidat" à l'intégration avait été formellement reconnu en 1999 et qui postule au club depuis... 1963. Comment sauver le processus ? Dans son rapport publié lundi 7 septembre, la Commission indépendante sur la Turquie rappelle à quel point les choses semblent aujourd'hui encalminées, avec le blocage de la moitié des chapitres de négociation. Le texte appelle à sortir du "cercle vicieux" apparu ces dernières années. En effet, à force de recevoir des messages de rejet ou de réticence vis-à-vis de sa candidature, la Turquie a fini par avoir le sentiment qu'elle ne serait jamais la bienvenue dans l'Union européenne, même si elle devait remplir un jour tous les critères d'adhésion. Cela a contribué au ralentissement des réformes dans ce pays, mettant fin à une période plus propice (2000-2005) où la perspective d'adhésion agissait comme un puissant moteur de transformation interne. La lenteur des réformes a alimenté en retour l'opposition de certains Européens à l'intégration turque... La boucle est ainsi bouclée. Pour en sortir, affirme ce rapport, il est de la responsabilité de l'Europe de revenir... à ses propres engagements et à ses propres textes. C'est-à-dire rétablir sa crédibilité en réaffirmant ce qui avait été approuvé par tous les gouvernements en 2005 : "L'objectif commun des négociations est l'adhésion". Ce qui d'ailleurs, note le rapport, ne préjuge en rien de leur aboutissement. Du moins le cap serait-il préservé. "Une excuse populiste" La Commission indépendante dresse un réquisitoire sévère contre les politiques qui tiennent des discours hostiles à la Turquie à des fins électorales. Elle critique (sans les nommer) Nicolas Sarkozy et la chancelière allemande, Angela Merkel, qui ont prôné un "partenariat privilégié" comme substitut à l'adhésion. C'est là "une excuse populiste", une formule vague dont personne n'a "réussi à expliquer" le contenu exact. La Turquie s'est alignée en 2008 sur 109 des 124 déclarations communes de l'UE. Allié important, elle participe aux grandes missions européennes en Bosnie, au Kosovo et ses troupes sont présentes en Afghanistan. Sa politique régionale est décrite dans le rapport comme un atout de taille pour l'Europe si celle-ci veut réaliser ses ambitions extérieures. ENGAGING TURKEY The Financial Times - September 8, 2009 Turkey and Armenia, neighbours divided by bitter conflict for almost a century, are intent on early diplomatic recognition and reopening their long-closed border. That was the good news that slipped out last week. The plan still has to get mutual parliamentary approval. There is strong nationalist opposition on both sides. But the Swiss-mediated negotiations have made much better progress than was expected. Ankara’s announcement last week of new measures to ease cultural restrictions on the restive Kurdish minority was also good news. They stop short of constitutional amendments or an amnesty for former militants, but they are a step in the right direction. Both actions should encourage faster progress in the languishing negotiations on Turkey’s membership application to join the European Union. Yet those talks are caught in a vicious cycle of mutual disenchantment, as spelt out this week in a disturbing report by the Independent Commission on Turkey, a group of eminent Europeans chaired by Martti Ahtisaari, former president of Finland. They argue that EU credibility is at stake because Turkey is not being treated as a normal accession candidate. In spite of a unanimous decision five years ago to open the talks, France, Germany and Austria are all now backing an alternative “privileged partnership” that stops well short of full membership. France is blocking negotiations on several issues. So is Cyprus. Such behaviour is dangerously counter-productive. Failure to reach agreement on the reunification of Cyprus has poisoned the process. The EU members made a fundamental mistake in allowing that divided island to join without a deal. Now there is little incentive for the Greek Cypriots, already enjoying the full benefits of membership, to negotiate one in good faith. As Europe hesitates, Turkey also drags its feet. There is little political incentive in backing EU membership in Ankara. Young Turks are increasingly sceptical. There are worrying signs of anti-democratic behaviour, too, such as the government’s latest imposition of massive fines on the Dogan media group, the country’s largest. Both the EU and Turkey should urgently refocus attention both on the Cyprus talks and the wider accession negotiations. To allow them to fail by default would be a tragedy. It would also sour relations between the EU and a vital partner whose engagement is essential for Europe’s future security, prosperity and dynamism. EU: NEED TO RESTART TALKS WITH TURKEY, WISE MEN SAY ANSAmed - September 8, 2009 An appeal was launched today in Brussels by the 'wise men' of the Independent Commission on Turkey to restart negotiations on EU membership with Ankara, which have been caught in a vicious circle for four years. The wise men - former Finnish President and Nobel prizewinner for Peace Martti Ahtisaari; fomer EU Commissioner Emma Bonino, Italy, and Hans van den Broek, Holland; former French Premier Michel Rocard; former Spanish Foreign Minister Marcelino Oreja; Austria's former Secretary General for Foreign Affairs Albert Roahn - presented their report 'Turkey in Europe, breaking the vicious circle', taking the opportunity to make observations on the recent turbulent years in relations between Ankara and the EU. It all started with a 'paradox', said Rohan: "Since negotiations started in 2005, the virtuous circle has turned into a vicious circle". There are several reasons for this change of tack: the thorny issue of Cyprus, with the failed 2004 referendum over the reunification of the island following the 'no' vote by the Greek-Cypriots, the slowing-down of reforms by Ankara, and also "the opposition to Turkey's entry on the part of several European leaders and public opinion in many countries". The positions of the leaders, said Rohan, "are in stark contradiction to the unanimous decision to open adhesion negotiations taken by heads of State and government in December 2004. This attitude has given Turkey the impression of not being wanted, of being treated differently from other candidates. But this approach is contrary to European interests: Turkey is a strategic country for energy routes, its presence in the Caucasus, its economic strength in Central Asia, and its negotiating weight in the Middle East". The result is that now more than half of the 35 chapters of negotiations for adhesion are blocked, either because of Cyprus' veto, as a response to the lack of full application of the Ankara Protocol on the part of Turkey, which regulates customs relations with the 27 countries, or because of the block placed informally by other chapters. France has blocked five chapters, preferring to focus on partnership rather than integration. Austria, Germany and Holland also have political positions or public opinion overwhelmingly against Turkey's inclusion in the EU. As for Italy, Bonino said that "lately, for the first time, opposing positions have been taken very very firmly by the Northern League". For this reason the former EU commissioner has called on Berlusconi to "mediate" inside the Government so as to define a clear position ahead on the EU summit on December 9-10, during which the next steps for the adhesion talks will be defined. Emma Bonino said that the question "of identity is an alibi for not saying anything, for not saying that they are Muslims, there are 80 million of them. I always feel like saying, what is the European identity? For me, Europe is a State of rights, division of power, democracy, open society; I do not believe that Europe is a religious project or a geographic project". In this negative context, there are only a few signs of a change in tendency, for example the resumption of Turkish-Armenian dialogue. But the 'wise men' insist that "an effort is needed, we need good news from Turkey, on its reform plans, and a greater sense of responsibility on the part of the authorities and the European media". "Not just the credibility of Europe towards Turkey, but the international role of the EU are at stake", concluded Ahtisaari. EU "BREAKING PROMISE" TO TURKEY BBC - September 8, 2009 The European Union is in danger of breaking its promise that Turkey will eventually be granted membership, an influential group has warned. The Independent Commission on Turkey accuses some European leaders of trying to derail Turkey's membership bid. Behind the carefully balanced language of diplomacy is a hard hitting report, a BBC correspondent says. It points the finger most firmly at France, whose President Nicolas Sarkozy is strongly opposed to Turkish entry. "France has publicly declared that it will not allow five key areas of the negotiations to go forward, specifically because the current French leadership opposes Turkish accession," the report says. Cyprus impasse The Independent Commission on Turkey is made up of senior European politicians and academics, and is led by the former Finnish President and Nobel Laureate Martti Ahtisaari. Its report says negative statements from some leaders, and efforts to substitute full membership for some other kind of privileged partnership or special relationship, are putting the EU's credibility at stake. "In 1999... we said that Turkey is a candidate state destined to join the union on the basis of the same criteria as apply to other candidate states. So it's the credibility of the EU [at stake]," Mr Ahtisaari said. France, Germany and Austria are among the countries that object to Turkey having full membership of the EU, proposing instead a privileged partnership. The report says a vicious circle has developed. "Fierce opposition from some European politicians combined with growing public resistance to further EU enlargement in turn has deepened resentment in Turkey and slowed the necessary reforms," the report says. It acknowledges that some serious obstacles remain to Turkish membership - not least, the impasse over the divided island of Cyprus. Solving that frozen conflict would boost Turkey's membership bid - but the commission warns that talks are running short of time. TURKEY'S CIRCULAR WORRIES The Economist - September 8, 2009 It is increasingly hard to pretend that Turkey's negotiations with the European Union are on track Turkey's friends inside the European Union believe that history is on their side. Ask these national politicians, diplomats and EU officials if they think Turkey will one day achieve full membership, and they answer that it must. In a decade or two, they say, objections to Turkish entry will look trifling, next to the country’s strategic benefits as an energy hub, regional diplomatic power and bridge to the Muslim world, not to mention as a dynamic economy filled with young people. Yet when it comes to the glacial pace of Turkey’s formal membership negotiations, those same friends are starting to sound the alarm. When talks began in October 2005, the popular notion was of a virtuous circle. Turkish reformers would use the EU process to push through changes that would transform the country. This would reassure Europeans, bring EU membership closer, strengthen the reformers and so on. In one of those polished phrases much beloved of diplomats, it was murmured that, for Turkey, the “journey is as important as the destination”. Yet it turns out that, for the journey to go on, those embarked on it must also believe in the destination. Turks read newspapers. They know that European leaders like France’s Nicolas Sarkozy think it is time to stop “lying” to Turkey about full membership. Turkey is in “Asia Minor”, Mr Sarkozy says; he will not be the one to “tell French schoolchildren that the borders of Europe extend to Syria and Iraq.” The danger of such rhetoric is clear: doubt the EU’s sincerity and the circle turns from virtuous to vicious. Complying with EU environmental law could cost €140 billion ($200 billion), says Cengiz Aktar, a professor at Bahcesehir University. No country would spend that without a clear path to membership. Some demands are pushy. One EU benchmark involves opening Turkey’s public-procurement market to European firms. That market is worth around €60 billion a year, says Mr Aktar. It is not going to open “while Sarkozy is going around saying Turkey will never be a member.” Thus reforms slow—and Turkey’s opponents inside Europe duly proclaim they were right all along and the country is unfit to join. An independent commission of pro-Turkey bigwigs, led by a former Finnish president, Martti Ahtisaari, will publish a progress report on September 7th. They do not mince their words. Actions by “some European leaders”, they say, have “all but derailed the process.” At the same time, there has been a “regrettable” slowing of reforms inside Turkey. Add in polls that show growing Euro-disillusionment inside Turkey, and a “vicious circle” is upon us, Mr Ahtisaari and his colleagues conclude. Out of the 35 “chapters” in the accession talks, only one has been completed. Eight are formally blocked because Turkey has not kept an agreement to open its ports and airports to traffic from Cyprus, an EU member since 2004 (Turkey does not recognise the Greek-Cypriot republic and insists that Turkish north Cyprus is being unfairly blockaded). The reunification of divided Cyprus would unblock this impasse. Promising peace talks began in 2008 under a new Cypriot president, Demetris Christofias. Yet it is now “hard to trace” a sense of urgency on the Greek-Cypriot side, says an official. This could cost the president of Turkish northern Cyprus, Mehmet Ali Talat, his job: he faces an election next year, and hardline opponents are circling. The European Commission must also report to EU governments in December on Turkish compliance with its port-opening promise. The report may set the scene for a big new row. Mr Ahtisaari’s commission calls for carping European politicians to shut up, more or less, and stick to EU promises to judge Turkey’s membership application purely in terms of compliance with EU rules and values. The problem is that it is hard to see such politicians shutting up. In places like Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and France, Turkey-bashing is a vote-winner. Finnish common sense Ask him in person, and Mr Ahtisaari, who won a Nobel peace prize for mediating in such tough spots as Kosovo, suggests that a bit of time may sort this out. Mr Sarkozy will not be around forever, and Turkey’s membership talks will take years, he says. “Having once been a president, I tend to say: presidents come and go.” The key is for Europe to keep its word, and allow the talks to continue. Other senior figures are more nuanced. The good news, maintains one, is that the Turkish elite still appears to believe in the membership talks. The main Turkish opposition party seems to be more EU-friendly than before. Recent government concessions such as the opening of a Kurdish-language television channel should gain credit with the EU, as will recent signs of a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. But the bad news is that Mr Sarkozy means what he says. Sources talk of “serious moves” by France to open a discussion with Turkey next year about alternatives to membership, to “put the cards on the table for the Turks”. France would want German backing before making such a move. The forthcoming election in Germany is likely to produce, as now, a coalition government that is divided on the Turkey question. That may help Turkey, as it ties Germany to the status quo of letting the talks go on. Mr Aktar suggests that individual EU countries which back Turkey should name an unofficial target date for entry: perhaps 2023, the centenary of the Turkish republic. The whole EU would never agree to a deadline, he recognises, but even the idea of an end-point would helpfully boost morale. It is an intriguing suggestion. On the EU side, the passage of time can be expected to make the case for Turkish entry stronger. Yet in Turkey the slow pace of talks is reducing the chances of success. If Europeans and Turks can meet somewhere in the middle, they might just make history.

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